Thinking in Systems

A Primer

Author(s): Donella H. Meadows

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We can’t control systems or figure them out. But we can dance with them!

Mental Models of Systems

Everything we think we know about the world is a model… None of this is or ever will be the real world.

Our models of the world and how things are interconnected are “pretty good”, but they are far from perfect and are incomplete. Additionally, these models are extremely biased as we tend to ignore information that doesn’t fit our current model. In order to be successful, you must be willing to acknowledge that your views are just a model and that you may be lacking information that someone else may have because of their differing “viewpoint”.

Remember, always, that everything you know, and everything everyone knows, is only a model.

System Composition

Systems are composed of elements, interconnections and functions or purposes. Often, these elements aren’t perfectly in sync, leading to a system that operates less effectively or efficiently as possible. More generally, systems are composed of “stocks” and “flows”. Where stocks are the system’s “memory” of the changing inflows and outflows in a system.

A trivial system example is a single inflow, outflow and stock with no feedback. This can be represented by a bathtub with a faucet, a drain and water flowing continuously, rather than being turned down when the tub is getting full. If the inflow is greater than the outflow, then the bathtub overflows. A real-world example in the context of software engineering, is when tech debt is accumulated more quickly than it is “paid”, leading to unreliable and hard to maintain software systems.

Above, I explicitly stated “no feedback”. Feedback loops are a significant component of systems. These loops can be defined as managing flows in response to stock levels — e.g., turning down the flow of water when the water is approaching the brim of the tub. Feedback in a real-world system, again in the context of software engineering, could be provided via Service-Level Objects (SLOs). Where if the “budget” is exceeded, you shift focus from building new components to maintaining and hardening what currently exists. The resiliency of a system is difficult to see until you exceed its limits.

Placing a system in a straitjacket of constancy can cause fragility to evolve. -C.S. Holling

People often sacrifice resiliency … for productivity, or for some other more immediately recognizable system property.

Feedback loops can either be “reinforcing” or “balancing”. Reinforcing feedback loops can be either positive or negative and lead to compounded results, the “snowball effect” or “success to the successful”. Balancing or stabilizing feedback loops work to pull elements to a steady state.

Often, feedback loops are part of many subsystems, simultaneously. Because these feedback loops are fibers between subsystems, they help harmonize or sync subsystem goals with macro system goals.

Hierarchies of Systems: systems of systems

Systems are comprised of subsystems, which are also comprised of subsystems of subsystems. There are efficiencies and inefficiencies that come from these hierarchies. Subsystems help the macro system or encompassing subsystem by reducing the amount of information and oscillations of change that need to be shared with the entire system.

… relationships within each subsystem are denser and stronger than relationships between subsystems.

Limiting Factors

Limiting factors are something determine how successful the overall system performs, independent of how much is invested in improving other elements of the system. An example of the “limiting factor” is that it doesn’t matter how well built your software is if you have a terrible product with no users. The product is your limiting factor and where you should be focused.

At any given time, the input that is most important to a system is the one that is most limiting.

Everything is part of a system, right? Wrong.

While reading this book, there were times when I would find myself thinking that everything is part of some system.

However, this statement is false. An entity is only part of a system if there are affects caused by removing the entity. Elements, often the physical entities of a system are the easiest part of a system to identify. The interconnections, rules and goals of a system are much more difficult to accurately identify.

Purposes are deduced from behavior, not from rhetoric or stated goals.

(In-)Efficiencies of systems

Competing Goals

Often, subunits or even subsystems may have a goal of their own that is being optimized for, but this goal doesn’t perfectly align or possibly unknowingly works against the goal(s) of the macro system.

An example that came to mind when I read this was when an Engineering organization in a company is optimizing for idealistic solutions and forgetting about the company goals at that point in time. For example, idealistic solutions are less important when the company is trying to establish product-market fit. Conversely, higher-quality solution may be preferred to “hacky” solutions after establishing product-market fit.

Centralized Control

Central control can be as damaging as subsystem optimizations. Conversely, “there must be enough central control to achieve coordination toward the larger-system goal”.

… there must be enough central control to achieve coordination toward the larger-system goal, and enough autonomy to keep all subsystems flourishing, functioning and self-organizing.

Ubiquitous Delays, “Buffers”

If the delays of information sharing are too short, they amplify short-term variation and create unnecessary instability. This is one reason why hierarchies and the “guard” of information sharing are necessary. In software engineering, engineering managers are necessary to guard the individual contributors from receiving immediate, flucuating, information.

Later in the book, adding “buffers” is mentioned as a means to stabilize a system. But, too big of buffers make systems slow and inflexible. Think of having to go through many levels of management in order to be approved to make a change.

Optimizin buffers, delays and the flow of information is usually an effective means to improve a system. An example that comes to mind is when identifying software system issues. If you don’t have access to how your software is behaving, you won’t know what needs to be improved or how it is performing and you will probably end up focusing on the wrong component. In software engineering this falls under “premature optimization”, by optimizing before profiling, etc.

You can make a system work better with surprising ease if you can give it more timely, more accurate, more complete information.

However, just because you can measure something, doesn’t mean that it is important. Conversely, because you can’t measure something, doesn’t mean that it isn’t important.

Language is the primary means for sharing information and humans use it inefficiently and ineffectively, often “polluting” information. As humans, we are inherently bad at communicating and it requires a lot of practice and expertise in something before we are able to effectively share ideas. The topic of effective information sharing is discussed in Ben Orlin’s Math with Bad Drawings: Illuminating the Ideas That Shape Our Reality, where, Ben states that the difference between a good and great mathematician is that a great mathematician is able to describe complex concepts, simply.

Honoring information means above all avoiding language pollution — making the cleanest possible use we can of language. Second, it means expanding our language so we can talk about complexity.

Language is an example of a limiting factor. Think about when you are learning a new language, whether it be the language of a another country or the language of a new profession. You prefer to talk about the things that you know how to talk about easily.

…we don’t talk about what we can see; wee see only what we can talk about…

“Linear minds in a non-linear world”

As humans, we tend to over-simply things. In the context of systems, we often over-simplify the interconnections between elements. Systems don’t have clear boundaries and the interconnections are not linear or as direct as we may think. These artificial boundaries are created in our minds and we become attached to them.

You can’t navigate well in an interconnected, feedback-driven world unless you take your eyes off short-term events and look for long-term behavior and structure; unless you are aware of false boundaries and bounded rationality; unless you take into account limiting factors, non-linearities and delays.

An Exaggerated Present

We often under- and over-estimate risk because of too much weight being put on recent events and too little on historical behavior.

Correcting Systems

Before changing or disturbing a system by attempting to correct it, observe its behavior for a while. When observing behavior, prefer factual, historical reference points to biased memories.

A common, and often early, approach to “correct” systems is to change the elements of the system. This is one of the “cheaper” change to make and therefore, it usually has a relatively low impact if the interconnections, rules and goals still exist and are “broken”. If changing an element in the system also causes a change in relationships or functions, then the impact can be more significant. But these major elemental changes tend to be more expensive than changing less impactful elements.

Instead of asking who’s to blame, you’ll be asking “what’s the system”?

In software engineering, one form of a factual reference point could be Root Cause Analysis (RCA) documents. These RCA documents are great reference points for newcomers to help them establish a mental model of the system — e.g., weak points, etc..

An Event- versus Behavior-level Understanding

Events from a system are one of the most visible forms of output, but not the most important. In order to understand the behavior of a system, observe how events accumulate. This is the difference between an event- and behavior-level understanding of a system. Event-level observations don’t give you the ability to predict future system behavior.

Leverage Points

Leverage points are places in the system where “tweaks” can be made to try to improve or correct the system. However, the leverage points that result in the desired behavior are not intuitive and difficult to share.

One example is changing flows i.e., changing the “parameters”. Changing flows is often one of the first leverage points that is considered. While it is relatively inexpensive, it frequently has little effect. Yet, this is where most focus and time is spent when people try to correct systems.

The most impactful leverage points are clearly defined, accurate goals that are aligned with the rules and paradigm or mental model shifts.